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Although the baby belongs to both of 'them', we usually speak of a woman 'having A baby' ~ come to think of it, that indefinite article does seem a bit surprising, when she has been making that baby her own for 3/4 of a year ~ rather than 'her' or 'their' baby or even just 'the' baby (grammatically Definite since we all know it's on the way, because we can see and/or have already been told about it).
One way and another, Answer 2 is the best here. Meanwhile the 'thin chances' in the Question are perhaps a slip of the speaker's tongue (or mind) ~ since Megan herself will, presumably, be growing larger over the months to come!